The Camp Gap – What We Can Learn from the Camp Mystic Tragedy
This summer has been one of the most flood-impacted on record, with states such as Illinois, Texas, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Wisconsin all experiencing extreme rainfall that overwhelmed communities. In a thoughtful analysis, AccuWeather found a 70% increase in reports of flash flooding through mid-July compared to the 10-year historic average.
The most consequential of this summer’s flood events is the Texas flash flood on the Guadalupe River that devastated Camp Mystic and resulted in over 138 deaths and at least $18 billion in damages. In the aftermath of this terrible flash flooding, ASFPM fielded more than two dozen media inquiries on topics ranging from flood mapping and pre-disaster mitigation to warning systems and steps parents can take to ensure their kiddos’ safety.
In reflecting on those interviews, along with reviewing numerous media reports and data about the event itself, five key lessons emerged:
1. Regulatory gaps leave camps and campgrounds vulnerable.
NFIP minimum standards and most community floodplain regulations only deal with development (i.e., turning a shovel full of dirt) and typically not temporary residential/overnight uses in the floodplain like camping, especially if a building isn’t being constructed or improved. A zoning code may provide some use requirements or restrictions. Although emergency action plans (EAPs) are best practices and most counties have a local emergency management department to provide technical assistance, EAPs are not usually required. While there may be either state and local standards and inspection/licensure requirements through health departments, any requirements for emergency procedures from a public health perspective are typically generic, if they exist at all. Inspections tend to be “check the box” and focused on actions like posting the plan in public spaces, etc.
It seems that local floodplain management ordinances could be improved to specifically address campgrounds, including requiring permits and inspections for operations and prohibiting the construction of new, overnight cabins in the highest risk areas like floodways. And for consistency purposes, state model ordinances could have clarifying language.
2. Advanced warnings only work when paired with an action plan.
Flood warnings, whether they be from sirens or from NWS alerts, are limited in effectiveness if you don’t have a specific EAP to accompany it. A siren or a weather radio is not, by itself, an effective flood warning system. An effective system requires specific instructions and practiced procedures to take action after the warning. This is especially important when time is limited, such as a flash flood situation.
There has been a lot of social science research and new innovations on warning systems in the past 25 years. The Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) was created in 2006. It was established by Executive Order 13407, which was signed on June 26, 2006. The order mandated the creation of a more effective, reliable, and comprehensive system for delivering public alerts and warnings. FEMA was designated as the lead agency for developing IPAWS in 2004.
The Warning Lexicon was created in 2023 and is a tool designed to help risk communicators write effective warning messages, particularly for Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), by providing a standardized set of statements about hazards, their impacts, and recommended protective actions. It’s based on research and a theoretical framework called the Warning Response Model, which identifies five key elements of effective warning messages: hazard, impacts, location, guidance, and time. The lexicon aims to improve the clarity, speed, and effectiveness of warning messages by offering a common language and actionable statements for various hazards. Pages 37-39 of the Lexicon’s supplemental information has a warning message framework for flash floods. A great background read on the Warning Lexicon and the creation and evolution of flood warnings can be found here. Also, the DHS Science and Technology Directorate has had an effort since 2016 focusing on the development and commercialization of low-cost flood sensors. A fact sheet can be found here.
In short, the development of tailored flood warning systems (defined here as a network of technologies and procedures designed to monitor and alert individuals and authorities about potential flooding, allowing for timely response and mitigation efforts) has never been easier or more customizable to specific situations than it is today.
3. EAPs for flash flooding in camps/campgrounds are non-existent or insufficient.
I reviewed several EAPs for campgrounds or RV parks. One trend was a tendency for flash floods to be lumped in with severe weather events. Flash flooding as a hazard must be broken out from generic severe weather events and needs to have automatic triggers and specific evacuation routes and points. For example, the evacuation/shelter point for a tornado — the lowest part of a building, for example — will get you killed in a flash flood. In an informal review done on several EAPs for campgrounds and RV parks, while some features of an effective EAP are present, I couldn’t find any that have all the necessary elements of what an effective EAP should have.
4. Plans must be practiced to be effective.
EAPs must be exercised with all responsible staff and campers so that it becomes automatic in the case of an unexpected, middle-of-the-night event. Based on numerous articles I read, it seems that staff at Camp Mystic and nearby Camp La Junta were not familiar with the EAPs. And what about the campers? By exercising the plan with campers, you not only make the camp safer but you create an opportunity to teach those curious young minds a little bit about flooding and floodplain management.
One underutilized exercise approach that is core to emergency management and would seem to be helpful here — either to develop or improve EAPs and/or to facilitate better awareness of the flood hazard and EAP — is a tabletop exercise. A tabletop exercise (TTX) is a discussion-based simulation used to evaluate and improve emergency response plans. It involves a facilitated discussion where participants analyze a hypothetical hazard scenario, identify potential problems, and develop solutions, all within a low-stress, informal environment. The development of a tabletop exercise focused on campgrounds dealing with a flash flood that comes in the middle of the night (essentially the Camp Mystic scenario) would seem to be helpful.
5. Parents need awareness and must ask the right questions.
Parents are almost entirely unaware of a camp’s flood risk or whether a camp has effective emergency plans. ASFPM participated in several interviews discussing this point including this one from NPR. It is clear that not only should parents be more educated on emergency plans but by asking campgrounds the right questions it will certainly prompt campground owners to ensure that their EAPs are updated and that there is awareness of them.
As a floodplain manager and as a parent of an 8-year-old daughter who attended her first Girl Scout day camp the Monday after the Texas tragedy, I am embarrassed to admit that I failed in doing my own due diligence on the camp she was attending when it comes to flood risk. However, in examining the lessons that are to be learned from the Texas tragedy, I argue that we have the know-how, technology, and approaches to significantly reduce the deaths and injuries related to flash floods. Let’s honor those who lost their lives by committing to closing the gaps in oversight, preparedness, and communication to make our nation’s camps safer.
Your partner in loss reduction,
